They’re the equivalent of rich folks who packed their cars and decamped to their second home - their second home being “the future” - when things started looking bad. None are now scheduled until spring 2021 at the earliest. Kong, Universal’s Fast & Furious 9 and Halloween Kills, and Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II and Top Gun: Maverick, all of which are attempting to leapfrog the pandemic entirely. That’s already what’s happening with Warner Bros.’ musical In the Heights and Godzilla vs. (“Cross your fingers and hope that people across the nation sitting in a dark room with strangers for two hours don’t get sick” looks more like a bottom-line-driven prayer than a rational plan one expert has likened it to Russian roulette.) If Tenet does even okay - acknowledging that most cities are mandating reduced capacity for theaters - that may be sufficient justification for studios to postpone deciding to stream their biggest movies, many of which they will instead continue to hold back until full-fledged theatrical releases become possible. But for months, Nolan’s movie has been discussed as the first post-pandemic big-screen must-see, and with the very existence of theaters imperiled, the studio has apparently decided that the post part of post-pandemic is negotiable. Expectations for the movies that have so far tested the theatrical box office - The New Mutants, an X-Men movie already shelved for two years, and Unhinged, a Russell Crowe road-rage thriller acquired by the fledgling distributor Solstice - couldn’t have been lower. For that matter, why wouldn’t Disney follow Mulanwith Black Widow (due November 6, it’s the movie behind which three years of Marvel’s schedule is trapped) or Pixar’s Soul (November 20)? If Mulanworks, it’s no great leap to imagine Warner, which launched HBO Max so poorly that an executive-suite pogrom soon followed, trying to boost its service by using it to debut Wonder Woman 1984 (scheduled for release October 2) or Dune (December 18). ![]() And since it doesn’t have to share revenue with theaters, Disney needs to sell far fewer virtual tickets to make a profit. The $29.99 price tag (for which you will “own” the movie as long as you’re a subscriber) is high compared to a movie ticket, but for families that would have gone to see it together, it’s a no-brainer. But Mulan is different - it cost $200 million, and the company’s choice to release it via Disney+ means that nothing is off the table. And the Sundance hit Palm Springs, which Neon and Hulu paid more than $17 million to acquire, became a Hulu-only release this summer. Some 2020 movies destined for wide release have already gone to streaming - Judd Apatow’s The King of Staten Island premiered on VOD, Apple bought the Tom Hanks WWII drama Greyhound, and Disney diverted Hamilton to Disney+, a decision that no doubt boosted its subscriber base, now at an impressive 60.5 million. On paper, Mulan looks like the stronger, and safer, bet. ![]() ![]() But if Mulan is a smash and Tenet wobbles financially or, worse, generates headlines about theater-based viral clusters a few weeks from now, it’s hard to imagine regular theatergoing - or major releases - resuming before the arrival of the New Year, a vaccine, or both. With a huge backlog of films awaiting release and production restarting or beginning on others, Mulan and Tenet are raising the question: Does the year in movies have to include leaving the house? If Mulan underperforms, theaters will live to fight another day. The other, Warner Bros.’ oft-postponed Christopher Nolan film, Tenet (opening September 3), is making a bet on the big screen.įor movie studios, it’s a stark moment of decision. ![]() movie houses completely and debut on Disney+ on September 4, more than five months after its originally scheduled opening in theaters. But with many of the nation’s theaters finally open again, this Labor Day will be defined by the premieres of two big movies that also represent a fork in the road: Together, they may determine not only what films we see but how we see them for the rest of this year and perhaps for much longer. In a normal year, major movies don’t get released on Labor Day weekend, since it’s too late to compete for summer’s bounty and too early for awards season. The Aurora Theatre in East Aurora, New York.
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